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 My thanks to Pooh and Piglet who generously gave their time to help me with this PSA. The fight against today’s disgraceful lack of handkerchief ownership goes on! Not entirely sure what I made this for, but when Pooh starts whispering in my ear, I can do naught but follow where he leads. Maybe it’ll be useful to a parent explaining why we need to use tissues. Or maybe it’d terrify the wee mites. As a pinko socialist commie I don’t think anyone is worth this much, but it is especially irritating in a government owned company.
Also, seriously, get a new name. The Colonial Development Corporation does not put out happy signals. There are reports that the UK has discovered that the swine flu virus can survive outside the body for at least up to 72 hours on dry surfaces. This is not unusual for influenza viruses, and is one of the reasons why seasonal flu spreads so insidiously. I posted a little about this last year on my even less frequently updated other blog. According to New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden, many hundreds of New York school children may have the infection, presumably having picked it up from schoolmates returning from Mexico trips. If these are confirmed, I think it would fulfil the WHO criteria for pandemic phase 5.
Mexico is now reporting 152 suspected deaths, but the medical infrastructure there, never top flight, is incredibly stretched, and only 7 of those cases have been sufficiently proven to be due to be swine flu to be part of the WHO figures. With many cases not properly tested, it is quite probable that some of those 152 are due to regular flu (which kills up to half a million worldwide every year, though usually mostly the elderly or infirm), or some other, yet to be determined, disease. The other possibility suggested is that many more people in Mexico have been infected than the 1600+ currently listed, and they’ve not been ill enough for it to raise any concern, meaning that the mortality rate even in Mexico would be far lower than it appears. As ever, data is key, and there are huge holes that will need to be filled before this outbreak is understood. There are still no deaths outside of Mexico, though the US has reported a handful of new cases requiring hospitalisation. There are disturbing reports from some alleged Mexico City medical professionals that the government is under-reporting the number of deaths, and also that many people are finding themselves unable to get sufficient medical treatment. I suspect, as things more forward, the initial Mexican response is going to look fairly disastrous, though I’m inclined to suspect lack of resources and experience rather than lack of will. Then we have this monitoring company, Veratect, that says it warned the WHO and the CDC on the 6th of April, but were ignored: Update 1:17 am GMT, 29th of April Here’s something I just spotted which is a bit disturbing. It seems that a Japanese government agency has found some bizarre side-effects to Tamiflu, which is the primary antiviral stockpiled in the UK, and elsewhere.
No information yet, but it is clear that Mexico City is having a bloody awful month. If it was a serious quake, it is going to make dealing with the swine flu outbreak (The death toll from swine flu in Mexico is now up to 149) much more difficult. This is all the info we have this minute, fresh off the Associated Press newswire:
Update 6:44 pm GMT: The Telegraph is reporting that it was strength 6 on the Richter Scale, which, according to the wikipedia article on the Richter Scale is considered “Strong. Can be destructive in areas up to about 160 kilometres (100 mi) across in populated areas. No reports of any casualties yet. Mexico City had a catastrophic strength 8.1 quake back in 1985, so hopefully most buildings are built to withstand today’s quake. Update 6:57 pm GMT: The US Geological Survey says it was a 5.6, centered 155 miles south of Mexico City in a region called Guerrero, 40 miles east of Acapulco. Update 11.55 pm GMT: It looks like the earthquake did not cause any serious harm. That’s some good news for a nation that could really use some. The outbreak in the Americas is starting to look rather serious. At issue is the idea that the virus has managed to sneakily combine not only swine flu and human flu genes, but it has also managed to get some avian flu genes also. Clearly a virus strain with a very interesting history. Avian flu was considered the most likely candidate for the next flu pandemic, so this “threefer” is ringing a whole lot of alarm bells.
Given our modern antivirals, some of which have been proven to be effective on this new strain, it is unlikely that the mortality rate would be anything like the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, but it could still be rather nasty, especially if it makes it as far as the densely populated cities of the developing world who cannot afford widespread preventative use of antiviral drugs. Like the Spanish flu it seems to be at its worst in otherwise healthy young adults, unlike more common strains which are mostly a danger to the elderly, infirm, or very young. So far it has only been found in Mexico and the southern US, but the BBC has quoted a “top US health official” as saying that “the strain of swine flu had spread widely and could not be contained.”. It is only a matter of time before it crops up somewhere else, I expect, most likely elsewhere in Central America. It is not the most important aspect of this, but the very last thing the global economy needs right now is travel restrictions and the shutting down of public buildings such as schools and libraries. (Mexico City has pretty much shut down everything, and I don’t blame them one bit.) Nice timing, pandemic swine flu. With any luck, it’ll peter out like the other outbreaks of recent years, but until then, it deserves our attention. I hope the UK is ready to offer all the scientific assistance we can provide.  Probably not the source of the outbreak. I draw odd comfort from seeing that the pro-rapture movement has already started putting out the idea that this is possibly the beginning of the apocalypse. Given their record for being utterly wrong on such predictions is 100%, maybe we’ll get through this alright! Update: The US Center for Disease Control has just confirmed 2 cases in the state of Kansas, 8 suspected cases in New York, and additional confirmed cases in Texas. Update: According to MSNBC, there are suspected cases in Minnesota and Massachusetts. Some thoughts: How common is it for a virus to manage to gather genes from swine flu, avian flu, and human flu before it gets noticed? I would have thought it would have been causing problems when it combined just two of those. Has this happened before? Update, 1 AM, 26th of April:
The Ohio Militia is calling for a show of strength against those evil liberals.
A million armed right-wing nut-jobs gathered in the one place that symbolises everything their lizard brains loathe. What could possibly go wrong? It is extremely doubtful they could muster anything like a million, but even a few thousand armed folks of that mindset could cause a lot of trouble. Here is another video by the same gentleman, Pale Horse. The thing that strikes me about it is how similar it is in style to the sort of video we often see from al-Qaeda. Masked, with his voice altered, a gun at his side, speaking words of fear. Right wing hate is on the rise in the US, catalysed by the unexpected development of a non-white President. I fear for the future of America. This has given me such a sense of wonder. I never knew such odd bubbles were even possible. Apparently they’re more spinning water than air, which is why they don’t just pop to the surface. The dolphins seem to get great pleasure from their creations. It’s incredibly relaxing to watch. Their water art is as beautiful as they are, and is one more example of why we should not treat the cetaceans as just another resource to be harvested. |
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